Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Ball Street: Week 2 Fantasy Football Trade Market

The only constant is change, continuing change, inevitable change, that is the dominant factor in society today. No sensible decision can be made any longer without taking into account not only the world as it is, but the world as it will be.  - Isaac Asimov

These well thought out words, apply to just about everything in life.  We are constantly making decisions based on our knowledge of change.  Whether it's buying gas, because we think prices are going up, or drinking the milk that is close to it's expiration date.  Evaluating change is probably the most important concept in fantasy football. 

Some people refuse to accept change, and cling to under producing big names, in hopes of big games, that come inconsistently.  We can also rush to believe that change has definitively happened after one turrrble, or great, performance.  Sometimes, we make the decision to get rid of a player, or trade for a player on the cusp of a breakout, a week too late, or a week too early.  Do your research, trust your gut, and it will work out by season's end.


Quarterbacks to Sell

  1. Robert Griffin III - You can keep him and ride it out for the season, but the hype will never be bigger.  His value can only go down from this point on.  If you took him as a backup, with the hopes of him blowing up, now is the time to cash in.   Find an owner who could use a QB and try to get a RB2 or WR2.  Start your offers high and work your way down.

Running Backs to Sell

  1. Shonn Green NYJ - I hate Shonn Greene and I'm not a believer in the Jet's offensive surge.  Greene has never been a consistent producer.  See if you can find someone who sees him as a RB2.
  2. Alfred Morris Wsh - There is a chance Morris could be the lead back all year.  I just don't trust Shanhan.  If someone will give you a RB2 or WR2 I would do it.  Don't get pressured into a bad deal.  I think he has a few more good weeks, before he has to worry about being replaced.
  3. Ryan Mathews SD - That Charger offensive line looked  turrrble Monday night.  Mathews is more talented than his backups, but his line isn't going to do him any favors.  He is banged up and will more than likely be on the injury reports and in late games most weeks.  Wait until they say he is going to start, then unload him for similar value.
  4. Kevin Smith Det - Smith had a big week one, but he goes up against the 49ers run defense this week and next week Mikel Leshoure comes back.  Try to get a flex player for him.

Running Backs to Buy

  1. Chris Johnson Ten - Johnson can only go up from here, and won't go any lower.  Try to lowball his owner with a low end 2 or flex player that he might like.  If you can steal him, do it.
  2. Steven Jackson StL - He didn't have a good game rushing week one against what might be a better Lion's run defense.  He is still a RB1 in my eyes.  Throw some offers out.
  3. Willis McGahee Den - Like Jackson, he ran into a tough run defense week one.  Things will be a lot better going forward.  See if his owner doesn't value him.

Wide Receivers to Sell

  1. Larry Fitzgerald ARI - I don't like anything about his offense.  He is Larry Fitzgerald, and for that reason someone will love him.  His production will be too inconsistent to count on this season.  Get a different WR1 or a high RB2.
  2. Miles Austin Dal - He is healthy now and I suspect his hamstring problems will linger, like last year.  Trade for a safer WR2.

Wide Receivers to Buy

  1. Jordy Nelson GB - The whole GB offense looked bad week one.  I still see Nelson as a WR1.  See if someone else doesn't.
  2. Brandon Lloyd NE - Lloyd was the most targeted WR in week one.  He will have mediocre games, but he is a high end WR2 that might win you some weeks.
  3. A.J. Green Cin - He looked good but not great week one.  Try trading someone like Austin or Fitzgerald for him.
  4. Eric Decker Den - Thomas had the bigger game week one, but I would still bet that Decker has the better season.  I think he is a great WR2.

Buy Antonio Gates

  1. Gate's rib injury doesn't appear to be serious, but his feet are healthy this year.  I still think he is the third best TE.  Try to capitalize on his owners fear.

2 comments:

  1. I love this article! Good fantasy players have to know when to trade a hot player. There is a lot of over-reaction in this game... take advantage of it.

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  2. You're right. Week one people are especially prone to over reaction. Everyone drafts their team with certain expectations for their teams/players. If they do bad week one, it looks that much worse if they don't perform well, because you only have one week to look at.

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