Ball Street: Week 2 Fantasy Football Trade Market

The only constant is change, continuing change, inevitable change, that is the dominant factor in society today. No sensible decision can be made any longer without taking into account not only the world as it is, but the world as it will be.  - Isaac Asimov

These well thought out words, apply to just about everything in life.  We are constantly making decisions based on our knowledge of change.  Whether it's buying gas, because we think prices are going up, or drinking the milk that is close to it's expiration date.  Evaluating change is probably the most important concept in fantasy football. 

Some people refuse to accept change, and cling to under producing big names, in hopes of big games, that come inconsistently.  We can also rush to believe that change has definitively happened after one turrrble, or great, performance.  Sometimes, we make the decision to get rid of a player, or trade for a player on the cusp of a breakout, a week too late, or a week too early.  Do your research, trust your gut, and it will work out by season's end.

Quarterbacks to Sell

1. Robert Griffin III - You can keep him and ride it out for the season, but the hype will never be bigger.  His value can only go down from this point on.  If you took him as a backup, with the hopes of him blowing up, now is the time to cash in.   Find an owner who could use a QB and try to get a RB2 or WR2.  Start your offers high and work your way down.

Running Backs to Sell

1. Shonn Green NYJ - I hate Shonn Greene and I'm not a believer in the Jet's offensive surge.  Greene has never been a consistent producer.  See if you can find someone who sees him as a RB2.
2. Alfred Morris Wsh - There is a chance Morris could be the lead back all year.  I just don't trust Shanhan.  If someone will give you a RB2 or WR2 I would do it.  Don't get pressured into a bad deal.  I think he has a few more good weeks, before he has to worry about being replaced.
3. Ryan Mathews SD - That Charger offensive line looked  turrrble Monday night.  Mathews is more talented than his backups, but his line isn't going to do him any favors.  He is banged up and will more than likely be on the injury reports and in late games most weeks.  Wait until they say he is going to start, then unload him for similar value.
4. Kevin Smith Det - Smith had a big week one, but he goes up against the 49ers run defense this week and next week Mikel Leshoure comes back.  Try to get a flex player for him.

Running Backs to Buy

1. Chris Johnson Ten - Johnson can only go up from here, and won't go any lower.  Try to lowball his owner with a low end 2 or flex player that he might like.  If you can steal him, do it.
2. Steven Jackson StL - He didn't have a good game rushing week one against what might be a better Lion's run defense.  He is still a RB1 in my eyes.  Throw some offers out.
3. Willis McGahee Den - Like Jackson, he ran into a tough run defense week one.  Things will be a lot better going forward.  See if his owner doesn't value him.

Wide Receivers to Sell

1. Larry Fitzgerald ARI - I don't like anything about his offense.  He is Larry Fitzgerald, and for that reason someone will love him.  His production will be too inconsistent to count on this season.  Get a different WR1 or a high RB2.
2. Miles Austin Dal - He is healthy now and I suspect his hamstring problems will linger, like last year.  Trade for a safer WR2.

Wide Receivers to Buy

1. Jordy Nelson GB - The whole GB offense looked bad week one.  I still see Nelson as a WR1.  See if someone else doesn't.
2. Brandon Lloyd NE - Lloyd was the most targeted WR in week one.  He will have mediocre games, but he is a high end WR2 that might win you some weeks.
3. A.J. Green Cin - He looked good but not great week one.  Try trading someone like Austin or Fitzgerald for him.
4. Eric Decker Den - Thomas had the bigger game week one, but I would still bet that Decker has the better season.  I think he is a great WR2.

Buy Antonio Gates

1. Gate's rib injury doesn't appear to be serious, but his feet are healthy this year.  I still think he is the third best TE.  Try to capitalize on his owners fear.

The FFBI's Most Wanted: Week 2 Waiver Wire Pick Ups

The NFL and fantasy football are both games of adjustments.  While we can't make in game adjustments in fantasy football, we should be looking to make adjustments week to week.  Our teams, no matter how stacked, can always be improved through trading or the waiver wire.  We know every year we will find a handful of difference makers that can greatly improve our chances of winning.  The key to picking through the trash to find a winning lottery ticket is, looking at opportunity.  How many times was this WR targeted?  Is this RB behind an injury prone starter?  Is this player's offense good enough to allow this spike in production to keep up and remain consistent?  These are some of the important questions you should be asking yourself, when putting a claim in on a player.  It's very important to think about why this player that no one owns did so well this week.  It's even more important if you have the first waiver spot.  I tend to wait to see what remains after waivers go though, and pick through the scraps.  Unless there is a no brainer pickup that week. 

Running Backs

1. Alfred Morris Wsh - Morris was given a huge workload and put up some huge numbers in the Super Dome.  He is a Shanahan RB, though.  This guy has been notorious, lately, for switching his depth chart weekly.  He is already talking about how he thinks Royster and Helu are great players too.  All it could take would be a fumble or two and maybe Helu is the new starter.  There are other examples or Shanahan being faithful to rookie RBs.  He is an obvious add, but don't break the bank for him, unless you really believe.
2. Mikel Leshoure Det - It's a popular thing to bash the Lion's offensive line in Michigan, but they looked great Sunday.  Several NFL analyst were commenting on the hole they were opening up in the running game.  Kevin Smith is the starter for now, or until he gets injured.  But, when Leshoure is back from suspension, I expect him to claim the starting job.  Leshoure looked great in the 4th preseason game, and could be the lead back the Lion's desperately need.
3. Knowshon Moreno Den - The reports from training camp suggested that Moreno was at the bottom of the depth chart, and could possibly be cut.  Sunday night told a different story.  Moreno was on the field quite a bit, mostly 3rd downs, and even scored a TD in the red zone.  If McGahee goes down, Moreno could be a 3 down RB.

Wide Receivers

1. Brandon Lafell Car - I like Lafell's opportunity more than any other WR on the waiver this week.  He is a starter, opposite Steve Smith, and has excellent red zone skills.  He struggled as a rookie last year, but he could develop into the consistent 2nd WR the Panthers have been looking for.
2. Alshon Jeffery Chi - Jeffery is a 6' 3" burner who got a lot of praise in training camp.  The rookie could benefit from all of the attention paid to Brandon Marshall.  His 5 targets were second for Bears WRs, behind Marshall.  He could be an inconsistent producer this year, but there is a chance his skills and opportunity make him a flex play for good match ups.
3. Kevin Ogeltree Dal - Ogletree, the 4th year WR, made some big plays in the opening game.  The question is, how much of that was due to the Giant's inability to defend the slant and their banged up secondary.  He is the Cowboys 3rd receiver, and we've seen production from this position before.  Ogletree has also been the 3rd WR, and been given ample opportunity, and done nothing to suggest he's a great player until last Wednesday.  He's worth the add, but personally I wouldn't use a high waiver on him.
4. Randall Cobb GB -  Cobb is great at making plays in space, as seen with his great return skills. Sunday, the Packers tried to get Cobb the ball quick and match him up on line backers.  This could just have been a product of the match up against a very tough SF defense.  There are a lot of mouths to feed in GB, so I don't love his shot at opportunity.  But, his skills make him a lottery ticket to stash on the bench.
5. Andrew Hawkins Cin - Hawkin was a player that "jumped off the screen" to me during the first Monday night game.  He looked fast and very elusive in the slot.  He has the look of a play maker and a PPR stud.  I can see him being a consistent source of yardage, with lottery ticket upside.
6. Stephen Hill NYJ - Hill is still an unpolished WR, but his athletic prowess was on display in the Jet's destruction of the Bills.  I don't think the Jet's offense will continue to average 40+ points a week, but Hill makes for a great lottery ticket stash.
7. Rod Streater Oak - Streater was a popular sleeper among Raider beat writers.  He made big plays in training camp, and caught the only TD for the Raiders Monday night.  He is an unsigned rookie, and thus probably not a consistent performer.  It also remains to be seen how much playing time he will get when Jacoby Ford and Denarious Moore return the line up.  Stash and pray that Carson Palmer still has a prow bowl year left in him.
8. Brandon Gibson StL - Gibson's 5 targets were second most on the team behind Danny Amendola's 9 targets.  There is a chance Gibson develops into a favored WR for Sam Bradford, someone has to catch the ball this year besides Amendola.  He could be the Ram's deep threat this season.
9. Danny Amendola StL - Amendola doesn't have the upside that Gibson has, unless you are in a PPR.  He is a safe player that will never kill you in the flex, or when he is used as a bye week fill in.

Tight Ends

1. Coby Fleener Ind - I love Fleener's upside at the TE postion.  Tupac's hologram can block better than each and every one of the Colt's offensive line men.  Fleener should be an often targeted quick check down for Andrew Luck.  Luck and Fleener also have great red zone chemistry from their days at Stanford.  He has top 10 TE upside.
2. Marcedes Lewis Jac - We have seen Lewis put up big numbers before with Garrard at QB.  Last year Blaine Gabbert was turrrble, but he looks much improved to start this season.  Lewis also has top 10 upside, we've seen it before.

If you have any questions about other players you want to pick up, or who to drop, you can comment, send me an email to theFFBI@gmail.com, or hit me up on my new twitter account @theFFBI.

Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings

Finally, after 7 very long months, the first NFL Sunday is upon us.  I'm not kidding when I say it feels just like Christmas when I was younger.  It makes me want to sing a song or something.  There should be football season songs we can sing.  Being able to root for my picks and position rankings, makes this Sunday that much better.  With that in mind, I'll give you an explanation of how I'm approaching my position rankings.

The first week of the season can be very difficult to predict.  Sure, we know what defenses to avoid and target based on last year's numbers, but this year most defenses have new players and or new coaches.  The same concept hold true for most offenses in the NFL.  We have a good idea of what things will be like, but there will be surprises.  With that in mind, I'm ranking players with a mix of last year's production, what I've seen in the preseason, and a few hunches.  Trust and opportunity are also key components.  There will be one Pittsburgh or Washington RB that does well this weekend,  but no one has a great idea of who it is.  I don't trust any of them so I probably won't rank any.  I rank purely based on my confidence in starting that player this week. 

These rankings are based on a standard league scoring with 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 RB/WR flex, 1 TE, 1 DEF, and 1 Kicker.  If you have any questions for other scoring formats, I would be glad to answer your questions in the comments or you can email theFFBI@gmail.com.  I have played in many different formats and feel confident answering any questions regarding PPR, IDP, or other league formats.

Quarterbacks

1. Drew Brees home vs Wsh - I feel like he has something to prove in the first game since the bounty scandal.
2. Tom Brady @ Ten - New down field threat, 4 pass catching TEs, Wes Welker.  I'm not scared of the O line issues.
3. Mathew Stafford home vs StL - Megatron, Megatron, and Megatron.  Jeff Fisher may have really coached up this DEF, but I'm still not sold on the DET defense.  Stafford will throw a lot.
4. Aaron Rodgers home vs SF - Rodgers is facing a real tough defense that returns all 11 starters, but he's still Aaron Rodgers.
5. Matt Ryan  @ KC - The new Offensive coordinator has promised more passing this year and KC is banged up on defense.
6. Michael Vick @ Cle - He's healthy right meow.
7. Cam Newton @ TB - TB's defense was awful last year and I don't think Schiano has fixed it yet.
8. Philip Rivers @ Oak - Gates is healthy and Ryan Mathews is injured.  I say they lean on River's arm. 
9. Peyton Manning home vs Pit - He looked good in his last preseason game.  His velocity still isn't 100% but Pit doesn't scare me, especially missing Ryan Clark.
10. Jay Cutler home vs IND - Great match up, but I feel like they run a lot in the second half.  Chicago's line is still shaky and IND still has Freeney and Mathis.
11. Matt Schaub home vs Mia - He looked great in the preseason and this is a good match up made even better with Mia trading away Vontae Davis. 
12. Ben Roethlisberger @ Den - I could see Todd Haley using lots of quick passes to Antonio Brown to supplement an ailing RB situation.
13. Josh Freeman home vs CAR - With the additions of Carl Nicks on the O line, Vincent Jackson, Dallas Clark, and a new head coach, I believe in a Freeman bounce back year.
14. Joe Flacco home vs Cin - If Torrey Smith breaks out, like most think he will, Flacco could be a borderline starter this year.
15. Robert Griffin III @ NO - Those extra 40 or so rushing yards, can really do a lot to save a QB's weekly value.  Having his first start in front of an angry Super Dome crowd is a little worrisome though.
16. Jake Locker home vs NE - Can run , has decent weapons, and will be playing from behind.
17. Russell Wilson @ Ari - Will the preseason magic continue?  Very interesting QB and a surprisingly great runner.
18. Christian Ponder home vs Jac - I think he might surprise people this year.  Adding Jerome simpson helps a QB who was a viable bye week fill in last year.  He is also able to get you 30 yards or so rushing a game.
19. Alex Smith @ GB - Will he take the next step under Harbaugh's tutelage, or are those down field WR acquisitions meant to give the running game more room?
20. Sam Bradford @ Det - This ranking might be too low.  The Lion's secondary is without Louis Delmas and top CB Chris Houston, and they weren't exactly shutting down QBs last year with them in the line up.

Running Backs

1. Ray Rice home vs Cin - He's my favorite RB, so I am a little biased.  No running back means more to their team's offense than Ray Rice.
2. Lesean McCoy @ Cle - Great match up and even greater running back talent.
3. Darren McFadden home vs SD - When healthy he is one of the very best.
4. Chris Johnson home vs NE - That burst that took him to 2000+ yards, looks like it has returned.  Hopefully the threat of Jake Locker's legs will open up a few bigger holes this year, helping him avoid those 40 yard turd games.
5. Matt Forte home vs Ind - See Jay Cutler ^^^
6. Arian Foster @ Mia - The knee thing is a little scary, and he might share a few more carries with Ben Tate, but he will still get his.
7. Steven Jackson @ Det - The people that passed on this steady RB for riskier players will regret it at year's end.
8. Michael Turner @ KC - Until we see a decline, I still say you can expect solid yardage and a TD most weeks.
9. Jamaal Charles home vs Atl - His preseason was solid and he is a top five RB candidate when healthy.  The stats on RBs coming back from ACL injuries are not good though.  Risk/Reward
10. Fred Jackson @ NYJ - Tough matchup and he is 31 years young.  He has proven to be a great RB though.
11. Doug Martin home vs Car - I had a dream about drafting him back in June, before he was named the starter.  Joshradamus dream prognostication?  We shall see.
12. Marshawn Lynch @ Ari - Early indications are that "beast mode" will suit up Sunday afternoon.  Be wary of the early Lynch benching if they are up big.
13. Darren Sproles home vs Wsh - Solid yardage production every week and he was the 7th most targeted player in the red zone last year.
14. Frank Gore @ GB - Gore warrants a rank this high assuming he still gets his 20 touches a game and is healthy.  I have a bad feeling about his yearlong value, but he has the talent to prove me wrong.
15. Steven Ridley @ Ten - This is his week to shine, with Shane Vereen out.  I'm not sure if his opportunity last all season. 
16. Reggie Bush @ Hou - Bush and his backfield mate Daniel Thomas, might be Miami's only good weapons.  This could be good or bad for Bush's value.
17. Toby Gerhart home vs Jac - I don't see AP getting more than 10 carries and Gerhart averaged 4.9 yards per carry last year.
18. Kevin Smith home vs StL - If he finishes the game he will put up good yardage.  He might lose goal line carries to Keiland Williams.
19. Peyton Hillis home vs Atl - The WHITE BUFFALO will run wild this season.  He and Jamaal Charles were named co starters and he is reunited with the offensive coordinator he had in 2010.  The Chiefs will rush 550+ times as a team this year.
20. Donald Brown @ Chi - Brown is a good candidate to move up this list as the year goes on.  He ended last year strong, and has no competition in the backfield.
21. Michael Bush home vs Ind - Bush and Forte will both have value this year.  Don't worry about starting him in your flex if you drafted Forte.
22. Willis McGahee home vs Pit - McGahee should be in line for the majority of carries this season.  We don't know enough about this offense yet, and it's a tough match up.  Might be too low.
23. Benjarvus Green-Ellis @ Bal - It's a tough match up on the road, but he should have a solid season.  The law firm might even improve on Benson's numbers in Cin.
24. Rashad Jennings @ Min - Coaches say he will get the lion's share of the carries, but will they be tempted to use MJD when he has a big gain on a 3rd down?
25. Cedric Benson home vs SF - Aaron Rodgers and the GB coaching staff love Benson.  He is very dedicated and has even been sitting in on the QB meetings, to better learn pass protection schemes.  I love his potential this season, but the SF run defense is tougher than a two dollar steak.
26. Deangelo Williams @ TB - Should be higher if Jonathan Stewart doesn't play.  Not that much higher though.  I don't trust Carolina RBs.  Not enough carries to go around and this Newton guy.
27. Trent Richardson home vs Phi - He's banged up right meow and I expect them to spread the carries around this week.  He will be higher when healthier.
28. Ben Tate home vs Mia - He could have a big game if Houston gets out to an early lead and they rest Foster some.  Should get 10-14 touches most normal weeks.
29. Ronnie Brown @ Oak - Norv Turner says he will get the majority of the carries.  But, how effective will he be with those carries?  He averaged only 3.2 yards a carry in a very good eagles offense last season.  I think that number isn't much better Sunday.
30. Shonn Greene home vs Buf - I don't like Greene or his offensive line, as a unit.  That said, he will get the majority of the carries, and he is worthy of a flex spot.
31. C.J. Spiller @ NYJ -  I love Spiller's upside in a PPR, and he will still be flex worthy in standard formats.  He proved he is a capable RB when Fred Jackson went down last season.
32. Beanie Wells home vs Sea - I hate owning injury prone on west coast teams.  He obviously has talent, but you never know when that talent will be on the field.  Make sure you always have viable late game throw in options if you own him.
33. Ryan Williams home vs Sea - Williams is also coming off an injury, but might be healthier than Wells on the season.  If Wells goes down, or Williams gets an even split in work, he could be a flex player.
34. Everyone else is a crap shoot.  I like Jonathan Dwyer the most in PIT, the Saints might try to feature Mark Ingram this year, and Alfred Morris might be the Redskin's starting RB.  

Wide Receivers

1. Calvin Johnson home vs StL - If you are looking for a reason to start Julio Jones and Brandon Marshall over Megatron in your 4 person league, he is going against Cortland Finnegan.  Finnegan has historically given Andre Johnson trouble, and may try to provoke Megatron to take a swing at him.
2. Julio Jones @ KC - This dude is more explosive than the volcano scene in Jack Ass 3.
3. Brandon Marshall home vs Ind - I think they feature Marshall in his first game as a bear.  Look up his pro bowl stat line in 2011.  He has talent.
4. Roddy White @ KC - Has consistently been a top 7 WR and a leader in the all important targets stat.
5. Percy Harvin home vs Jac - Harvin finished 2011 as the 8th best WR and was only on the field for 59% of the offensive snaps.  The coaching staff realized this in the off season.
6. Jordy Nelson home vs SF - He was number one in yards after the catch and yards at the catch last season!  Which means he caught more deep bombs and got more yardage out of short plays than anyone in the league.  Is Nelson more deserving of Julio Jones description?
7. Andre Johnson @ Mia - His long term value is not great IMO.  But, he is healthy now and this game should be a blowout.
8. Greg Jennings home vs SF - This might be his last season in GB.  He is going to play hard to try and prove he should stay or be given big money by another team.
9. A.J. Green @ Bal - Should build on his impressive 2011 start this season.  Will Andy Dalton help or hinder his ascendance into fantasy elite?
10. Antonio Brown @ Den - I believe the hype more than anyone else. I reached for Brown in all of my leagues.  Roethlisberger looks to him on 3rd downs and he is a possession receiver in a punt returners body.
11. Wes Welker @ Ten - I don't think he will repeat last year's number, but he is always a reliable source of yardage.
12. Eric Decker home vs Pit - Peyton Manning loves good route runners, and Decker might be the best route runner on the team.  Don't think of him as just a Wes Welker type.  He is a tremendous athlete as well.
13. Brandon Lloyd @ KC - Lloyd had a breakout season in Denver under Josh McDaniels, after seven years of obscurity.  McDaniels becomes the Rams offensive coordinator and trades for Lloyd, who does well with the Rams.  McDaniels is now the Patriots offensive coordinator and brings in Lloyd as a free agent.  McDaniels loves Lloyd.
14. Larry Fitzgerald home vs Sea - Arizona has the worst offensive line and QBs in the NFL.  Fitzgerald will still have good games based on his talent, but when.  You will never know when that good game will be.  I wish I could put him lower.
15. Steve Smith (Car) @ TB - His foot injury is supposedly behind him.  He still has a lot of talent, but teams focused on denying the Newton to Smith connection in the second half of last season.  Proceed with caution.
16. Dwayne Bowe home vs Atl - He is one of the most physically gifted red zone threats in the NFL.  He jumps for a ball at it's highest point almost as good as Larry Fitzgerald.
17. Torrey Smith home vs Cin - The coaching staff has talked about how hard Smith has been working on his route running, and becoming a better overall WR, in the off season.  I believe in the breakout buzz.
18. Pierre Garcon @ NO - Garcon and RG3 have become close friends on and off the field.  Garcon put up good numbers last year with a stable of turd QBs. 
19. Vincent Jackson home vs Car - Jackson has been traditionally a boom or bust WR.  He has top five potential talent.  Will he find consistency on a new team?
20. Marques Colston home vs Wsh - He is a little banged up, but should be good to go.
21. Mike Wallace @ Den - Wallace missed almost all of the Steeler's training camp.  This put him way behind in learning Todd Haley's new offense, but he is still one of the fastest WRs in the NFL.
22. Jeremy Maclin @ Cle - Desean Jackson is drawing the Joe Haden match up, a very good CB.  This might give Mcalin more room to operate.
23. Nate Washington home vs NE - I think they will be throwing from behind, and Washington was Jake Locker's favorite target last year.
24. Malcolm Floyd @ Oak - He is healthy and the best receiver, behind Antonio Gates, on the San Diego roster.
25. Demaryius Thomas home vs Pit - I think Decker is going to be the preferred talent, but Thomas has a lot of upside and talent.
26. Steve Johnson @ NYJ - Johnson has a ticket to Revis Island this week and he is banged up.
27. DeSean Jackson @ Cle - Beat writers have said that Jackson looks better than any other WR in training camp.  This could be too low, but he does have an elite CB matched up on him this week.
28. Reggie Wayne @ Chi - I think Reggie Wayne's fantasy death has been greatly exaggerated.  Luck has looked great so far, and Reggie could be his top target. We will see.
29. Titus Young home vs StL - Young is another beat writer wonder.  If the second year WR makes a statement this week, he could move up the weekly rankings.
30. Justin Blackmon @ Min - I really like what I saw from Blackmon, and his QB Blaine Gabbert, this pre season.  Let's see if their good play holds up against regular season defenses.
31. Michael Crabtree @ GB - It could be a shootout in Green Bay.
32. Randy Moss @ GB - There is some talk that SF has been keeping Moss under wraps in the preseason, like the Patriots did in 2007.  He could be a featured weapon.
33. Mike Williams home vs Car - Williams has been working hard this off season to get back  to his 2010 form. 
34. Darrius Heyward-Bey home vs SD - I don't love Carson Palmer at QB, but it looked like Heyward-Bey was his favorite taget last season.
35. Steve Smith (StL) @ Det - I have a feeling that he could break out this season.  Remember him in New York?  Stash him on your bench this week if you have room.

Next week, I will rank the rest of the positions.  Email me at theffbi@gmail.com or leave a  comment and I will get back to it before kick off, if you have any questions.