Ball Street: Quarterly Fantasy Football Player Values

These rankings are how I view these player's values at this current time, and going forward.  You can use this list for trade values, and in general as a basis for you to start thinking about what you view player values as going forward. 

 

A short while into writing this article, I realized how difficult it was to try and put a definitive value on all of the relevant players in fantasy football.  You have to balance player expectations against what the results have actually been.  Injuries have to be figured in for certain players, or players that have greater injury risk.  We find players in the top of fantasy scoring that don't quite fit; like Ryan Fitzpatrick 4th in QB scoring or Andre Roberts 3rd in WR scoring.  Lots of things will have changed, even in the next 3 weeks, when I go to write my next player value article.  Forecasting these changes was something I enjoyed, and helped me get a better sense of player value than I had before writing it.

 

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Quarterbacks

1. Tom Brady NE - The Patriot's O line is starting to get healthy and block better.  Brady has a ton of weapons and will continue to grow chemistry with Brandon Lloyd.
2. Aaron Rodgers GB - The Packer's O line is holding this offense back.  Rodgers and the GB offense will struggle against defenses with a  good pass rush, unless they can fix their issues. 
3. Drew Brees NO - The Saints' defense is turrrble.  Brees will always be put in passing situations.
4. Matt Ryan Atl - Ryan has one of the best receiving trios in Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez.  It looks like this is the year he jumps from 10-14 into the top 5 fantasy QB discussion.
5. Robert Griffn III Wsh - RGIII has been great through the first quarter of the year.  Most of his fantasy value comes from his legs, and scoring rushing TDs.  I expect this to continue, and could see him getting 14 TDs at the end of the year.  The concern is that he will get injured.  Running the read option for a full season will take quite a toll on his health.
6. Cam Newton Car - It would be nice to see more consistency from Cam's rushing production.  He has had two great weeks running the football, and two bad weeks.  Most of his value will come from running the ball this year.  Through 4 weeks, it doesn't appear that Newton will repeat his passing numbers from last year.
7. Peyton Manning Den - I'm not in the camp of people that think Manning's arm strength is a major detractor to his production.  His O line play, and chemistry with his receivers, are improving on a weekly basis.
8. Eli Manning NYG - Eli rarely kills you, and he has the potential to win you some weeks.  They have depth at the receiver position to hold them over until Nicks is healthy, and he has a great new red zone target in Bennett.
9. Mathew Stafford Det - The Lions offense looks out of sync so far this year.  This isn't a group that has had a ton of turn over, and their O line is playing well.  We've seen Stafford put up huge numbers last year.  Hopefully they use the bye week to get things right.
10. Michael Vick Phi - Last week showed us that there is hope that Vick can play without turnovers and still get out and run some.  Modest rushing totals, and a few rushing TDs, will put him in the top 10. 
11. Philip Rivers SD - Rivers has top 5 QB talent.  A sub par O line and receiving goup, are holding him back from living up to his potential.  We've seen him put up huge numbers with no name receivers before, so there is hope.  Gates returning to from would go a long way to help Rivers move up this list.
12. Ben Roethlisberger Pit - A struggling ground game ensures that the Steelers will remain a pass oriented offense.  Roethlisberger has one of the best WR trios in the league, and a great red zone target in Heath Miller.
13. Joe Flacco Bal - The Ravens are holding true to their promise to throw the ball more this season.  Flacco is surrounded by offensive talent and will continue to hover on the QB1 fringe.
14. Ryan Fitzpatrick Buf - Fitzpatrick has been one of the best fantasy QBs this year.  There are reasons to think this will continue.  Chan Gailey is a very underrated offensive play caller, the Bills have excellent receiving options, and the Bills have a good up and coming O line.  However, Fitzpatrick struggles with turnovers and hasn't put together a good full season yet.
15. Tony Romo Dal - Much like Rivers, the Cowboys' O line and receivers are letting him down in a big way.  Romo doesn't have much time to throw and his receivers, namely Dez Bryant, have had issues dropping the ball.
16. Andy Dalton Cin - Dalton has been very productive thus far, throwing for 3 TDs in 4 games.  He has one of the best WRs in the game and a good supporting cast to compliment Green.  The only reason Dalton is this low is the fact that he is unproven and still a young QB.
17. Matt Schaub Hou - Schaub is a great real life QB, but is a prisoner of his offense.  Schaub will have some good games, but he is on a run first team that runs more than 60% of the time in the red zone. 
18. Andrew Luck Ind - The Colts have a turrrble O line that doesn't give Luck much time to throw.  However, Luck has good receivers and will usually be playing from behind.  Luck will be an interesting 12-16 QB pick next year, if the Colt's improve his O line.
19. Christian Ponder Min - Ponder is a great bye week fill in player.  He usually gives you some rushing production and will have some good days passing.  The problem is that Ponder is in a conservative run first and short pass offense.  Minnesota has yet to give Ponder the green light to use his big arm and go deep.
20. Carson Palmer Oak - I would like Palmer a lot more if he had his full compliment of WRs.  He has struggled with accuracy, but he is throwing a ton and putting up decent numbers.

Running Backs

1. Arian Foster Hou - Foster's 3.7 YPC is pretty underwhelming, but the big plays are sure to come for Foster.  He is the Texans' offense.
2. Ray Rice Bal - Rice is one of the best combinations of touches and talent in fantasy.
3. LeSean McCoy Phi - McCoy hasn't put up the top 3 production that you drafted, but he has been robbed of some big plays by penalties.  McCoy's top 3 talent should rise to the surface as the season continues.
4. Maurice Jones-Drew Jac - Jones-Drew's O line is getting healthier and he is continuing to work himself back into top form, after holding out of training camp.  He had a great season last year, and this season his O line and offense is better than it was.
5. Jamaal Charles KC - Charles is on pace for a career high in carries.  The week 2 knee scare was quickly dismissed after two great performances.  His knee is still a small concern though.
6. Marshawn Lynch Sea - Lynch has carried over last year's impressive play into this season.  He is running hard, and is the focal point of the offense.  His schedule does get very tough at the end of the season, so keep that in mind.  His occasional back spasms are also a good reason to own Robert Turbin.
7. Adrian Peterson Min - Peterson looks better and better each week.  He is running hard and fearlessly, but you can tell he doesn't have his lateral speed back yet.
8. Trent Richardson Cle - Cleveland's O line is not as bad as I previously thought.  Richardson also looks much better as a pass catcher than I thought he would be.  He is a workhorse back, who can put up numbers even if his offense is struggling.
9. Frank Gore SF - Gore isn't catching as many balls as he has in the past, but he is still running hard and getting used in the red zone.
10. Willis McGahee Den - McGahee has looked very good, and is on pace for a career high in catches. 
11. C.J. Spiller Buf - Once Spiller is healthy, I think he can be a top fantasy RB, even if Fred Jackson is the starter.  We have seen running backs with similar skill sets be productive with 16 touches a game.
12. Reggie Bush Mia - Bush's change in running style has been amazing.  He no longer dances, or runs to the edges, looking for big plays.  He hits his holes hard and gets what is there.  Jorvorskie Lane will get into his red zone attempts, hurting his value some.
13. Alfred Morris Wsh - Morris may have broken the curse of Shanahan RBs.  He is easily the best RB on the roster, and the only one I thought would challenge him, Roy Helu, is on IR.
14. Matt Forte Chi - Forte's injury concerns drop his value some.  When healthy his rushing and receiving totals, make him very reliable.
15. Michael Turner Atl - It looks like Turner's skills are diminishing, but he is still getting lots of opportunity.  He has been productive, despite splitting snaps with Jacquizz.
16. Darren McFadden Oak - McFadden's best years have been when he was running in a power running scheme.  He is now in a zone blocking scheme.  He also looked bad in a zone blocking scheme when the Raiders ran it before.  You can't blame it all on the O line and scheme, McFadden is missing some holes and running to the edges.  This is something that he could get better at as the season goes on.
17. BenJarvus Green-Ellis Cin - The law firm has been solid, but the three fumbles are a bit concerning.  He is a safe RB@ who should always get you yards, but remember, Cedric Benson didn't get many TDs in this offense.
18. Stevan Ridley NE - Ridley would be an easy pick for the top ten, maybe top 5, if we knew for sure what his week to week role was.  Woodhead comes in for the hurry up.  People close to the team say Bolden will be the goal line back going forward.  Shane Vereen is just getting healthy.  There are lots of things that point to Ridley being an inconsistent RB, as the Patriots use different personnel week to week to exploit match ups they see.
19. Fred Jackson Buf - Jackson has lots of talent and should remain productive in a time share with Spiller, as long as he can stay healthy.
20. Cedric Benson GB -  Benson is a solid RB2 who is getting a surprising amount of touches in one of the best offenses in the league.  The Packers pass more than run in the end zone, so the TDs might not be there in bunches this year.  In a RB scene full of uncertainty, Benson gives you the comfort of having consistent touches.
21. Ahmad Bradshaw NYG - I don't think the Andre Brown time share affects Bradshaw that much.  Bradshaw has excellent talent and should be a good RB2, when healthy.
22. Mikel LeShoure Det - The Lions' offensive line has been opening up decent holes in the running game.  LeShoure ran strong in his debut, and ran into a very tough match up last week.  You can count on LeShoure to give you consistent touches in an offense that has been explosive in the past.
23. DeMarco Murray Dal - Murray has top 5 talent.  The Cowboys' O line hasn't been giving him any running room, and their offense is struggling in general.  Murray is also an injury risk to boot.
24. Ryan Mathews SD - There are lots of reasons not to like Mathews; bad O line, injury risk who mostly plays in late games, the Jackie Battle situation, and he has no history of consistent production.  He has the talent to do well running and catch the ball, but you have to factor in everything above.  Head Ache.
25. Darren Sproles NO - Sproles is the only Saints RB you can trust, and he doesn't run the ball.  Sproles is essentially Percy Harvin.  He is involved in the passing game, and gets the occasional carries.
26. Doug Martin TB - Martin has not lived up to the pre-season hype so far.  He has struggeld againt some tough run defenses.  The coaching staff has not waivered in their support of him, with the exception of giving Blount a goal line carry last week.  Easier match ups are coming.
27. Michael Bush Chi - Bush gets a consistent amount of touches, and most of the goal line carries.  He is a good flex option, except when facing top 5 run defenses.
28. Steven Jackson StL - Jackson looks like he is starting to put this groin injury behind him.  He runs behind a bad O line and plays in a very mundane offense.  The reports that this is his last year in St. Louis could motivate him to be very productive, while looking to sign a new contract in the off-season, or it could be a harbringer of St. Louis wanting to see what they have in Daryl Richardson.
29. Chris Johnson Ten - The Titan's O line looked much improved against a good run D in Houston last week.  I'm still not ready to say Johnson is back to being productive, but its a good sign for his value. I would still be hesitant to start him as anything but a flex.
30. Rashard Mendenhall Pit - Mendenhall returns from injury to join an under performing backfield.  Part of the reason the Steelers haven't been running the ball well, is their O line.  I think Mendenhall will be eased into the rotation, and I don't see him as much more than a flex/bye week guy for the rest of the year. 
31. Ryan Williams Ari - Williams has no real competition for the lead back job in Arizona.  He has had two straight flops at proving he can be a starting running back.  I'm not a big fan of his skill, but there could be opportunity here, if they keep giving him the work.
32. Donald Brown Ind - Brown has been underwhelming so far this year.  The Colts haven't said anything about replacing him yet, so there should still be work for Brown.  Brown is a decent flex/bye week guy, with upside for more if the Colts can get the ground game going behind a bad O line.
33. Jonthan Stewart Car - I view both of the Carolina backs as decent fill in plays.  You don't know which one is going to get the TD from week to week, and that is the only way they will have much value.  There is also still Mike Tolbert and Cam Newton to steal away carries and TDs.
34. DeAngello Williams Car -  ^^^
35. Andre Brown NYG - I'm not a big believer in the Andre Brown will remain productive hype.  Kevin Gilbride is already talking about getting first round pick David Wilson more involved in the running game.  We've seen three RBs be decently productive before, but I don't know if you will able to count on consistency from Brown.  I feel like he needs a high volume of carries and or goal line work to be productive.
36. Jacquizz Rodgers Atl - Rodgers has been seeing a decent amount of snaps at RB this year.  We have yet to see his speed result in big plays. 
37. Kendall Hunter SF - Hunter is one of the better backup RBs to own.  If Gore goes down, he becomes a top 15 back.  He also gets 12 to 8 touches a week and is a desperation start at RB most weeks.
38. Ben Tate Hou - I view Tate in the same way as Hunter.
39. Pierre Thomas NO - I like Thomas more than Mark Ingram, but neither is much more than a desperation flex, unless its s very good match up up.
40. Brandon Bolden NE - Bolden is an interesting RB.  He is faster than Ridley, and sources close to the team say that he will be the teams goal line back.  Its hard to trust New England's back field, but I like Bolden's upside.
     

 

Wide Receivers

1. A.J. Green Cin - Green is in the Calvin Johnson debate, for best WR, both in real life and fantasy.
2. Roddy White Atl - White is one of the most consistent WRs in fantasy. 
3. Calvin Johnson Det - Despite a rough start for the Lions' offense, Johnson has retained his value.  It hasn't been #1 WR great so far, but not many have Johnson's upside.
4. Dwayne Bowe KC - The switch to Brady Quinn is slightly concerning, but I wouldn't see it affecting Bowe's value that much.  Bowe is one of the best red zone targets in the NFL, he is tied for first in targets, and his team will always be playing catch up with their defense struggling.
5. Julio Jones Atl - The two bad games don't concern me that much.  We all know how talented Jones is.  Things should get better.
6. Miles Austin Dal - Austin has been very consistent, through 4 games.  Romo is looking for him in the red zone, and Austin's hamstring problem should improve as the season continues.
7. Percy Harvin Min - Harvin is getting used a ton in the passing game, and is still seeing some snaps in the backfield.  The TDs/big plays are coming.
8. Mike Wallace Pit - Wallace doesn't appear to have suffered from missing training camp.  He is one of the leagues best down field threats, and even has some red zone targets this year.
9. Victor Cruz NYG - Cruz is tied for the league lead in targets and is a consistent fantasy producer.  The huge plays might not be there, but the targets are even better.
10. Brandon Marshall Chi - The Culter to Marshall chemistry should improve as the year goes on.
11. Jordy Nelson GB - I still believe in Nelson as a WR1 for the rest of the year.  The packers offense should find some consistency soon. 
12. Reggie Wayne Ind - Wayne has quickly gotten in sync with his rookie QB.  He is getting a ton of targets, and targets are gold for WRs with Wayne's skills.  He may be a little older now, but he can still get it done.
13. Brandon Lloyd NE - Surprisingly, Lloyd lead the Patriots in targets.  The big plays will come as Brady and Lloyd figure each other out.
14. Eric Decker Den - I feel that Decker will have more consistency than Thomas going forward, while still maintaining big play potential.  He is a good route runner, and is better suited for Manning's play style.
15. Demaryius Thomas Den - Thomas's work with Calvin Johnson in the off-season appears to be paying off.  His route running looks improved, and he still has elite athleticism. A lot of his production has come off of WR screens.  Will opposing defenses soon key on this?
16. Antonio Brown Pit - Brown is a possession receiver in a punt returners body.  He can make big plays in open space, and is still Roethlisberger's trusted 3rd down WR. 
17. Torrey Smith Bal - Smith has looked like a stud so far.  He is getting open deep consistently, and Flacco throws deep more than any other QB.  If he shows consistency, he will be higher on the next list.
18. Stevie Johnson Buf - Johnson is a good, not great, WR who puts up consistent numbers when healthy.  He thrives on a ton of targets, but can be shut down by double teams.
19. Hakeem Nicks NYG -  Nicks would be #4 if he wasn't injured.  His foot was a big concern coming into the year, and now its his knee that is giving him troubles.  I just have a bad feeling about his season being derailed by injury. 
20. Andre Johnson Hou - Johnson has just missed on a few big plays this year.  He plays in a run first offense, and doesn't see as many targets as the other elite WRs.  He has to capitalize on the big play action passes to have good weeks.
21. Desean Jackson Phi - Jackson looks like he is returning to his 09/10 form.  He has been consistently getting open and is seeing a good amount of targets each week.  His value has been this good and he hasn't even made many of his signature big plays this year.
22. Wes Welker NE - Even when Hernandez returns I like Welker's value.  He is too talented to not be used.  Brady and Welker are close friends, I don't think Brady would let his friend get thrown under the bus in what may be his last season as a Patriot.
23. Larry Fitzgerald Ari - I was wrong on Fitzgerald.  Kolb has looked a lot beter at QB than I thought he would.  There are still reasons to not like Fitzgerald, but he is producing despite them.  Arizona is finding very creative ways to get him the ball, like using WR picks.
24. Vincent Jackson TB - Jackson is Freeman's favorite new weapon, with 38 targets.  Jackson has big potential, but this offense is no juggernaut.  His increase in targets this year should make him a safe start against bad defenses.
25. Brian Hartline Mia - We've seen Hartline's biggest career game, but I still think there are lots of reasons to like him.  He has good speed, is decent in all other aspects, and Tannehill looks like a competent passer.  It's just him and Davone Bess, on an offense that isn't afraid to let Tannehill pass like crazy. 
26. Marques Colston NO - It was great to see Colston finally have a big game last week.  This may be the point where he becomes consistent week to week.  We will see.
27. Steve Smith Car - Smith has talent, but defensive coordinators see him as the only receiving threat.  I would only feel safe starting Smith in good match ups.
28. Dez Bryant Dal - Bryant has not looked good this season.  He is making lots of mental errors that have been detrimental to the Cowboy's offense.  Dez has all of the talent to be a big time WR, but can he get his mind right?  Maybe, Dez needs to go back to doing hood rat stuff with his friends at the mall.
29. Greg Jennings GB - Jennings has shut it down until his groin is healed.  This should only be a two to three week ordeal.  If you can get Jennings on the cheap, I would go for it.
30. Lance Moore NO - Moore has been very productive this year, while getting 37 targets.  He is a high end WR3, that I would feel comfortable starting in the flex or at WR2 most weeks.
31. Jeremy Maclin Phi - Injury has been a concern for Maclin, so far this year.  We have seen him produce when healthy.
32. Pierre Garcon Wsh - We still don't have a good idea about what exactly was wrong with Garcon's foot.  If he was 100%, or I was sure that this injury wouldn't linger, I would have him as a WR2. 
33. Denarius Moore Oak - Moore is a great athlete with elite speed.  Moore should see plenty of targets and be involved in the offense, but I'm not sure how prolific this offense will be.  Moore is a good talent, but hasn't proven it over a full season and may be inconsistent.
34. Malcom Floyd SD - Floyd is River's most trusted target, besides Antonio Gates.  He has good size and play making ability, but Floyd hasn't been able to stay healthy for a full season in the past.
35. Nate Washington Ten - Washington has good not great speed, and is a reliable veteran in the passing game. 
36. Donnie Avery Ind - There was a reason that Avery was the first WR taken by St. Louis the year he came out.  He can get behind defenders with ease.  Health has always been a big concern with Avery, but if he can stay on the field he can develop into a good WR.
37. Domenik Hixon NYG - Hixon is a fast receiver who has been with the Giants for a long time. With Nicks out he is the #2 WR. He will even have some value when Nicks comes back.
38. James Jones GB - Jones is a low end WR2 when Jennings is out, and a desperation flex play when Jennings is back. 
39. Mike Williams TB - Williams has been doing good so far, catching a few TDs and having a nice game last week.  I just don't think this offense can sustain consistent production for two WRs.
40. Anquan Boldin Bal - Boldin is a bye week fill in player.  He will usually get some targets and has the chance to gt some decent yardage.
41. Davone Bess Mia - Bess is usually good for at least 6 points, with some upside.
42. Andrew Hawkins Cin - I've written a lot about Hawkins.  I like him, but I'm not sure how much the Bengals will use him.
43. Kendall Wright Ten - Wright is a talented rookie.  Being a rookie, he will be inconsistent. 
44. Andre Roberts Ari -  Roberts is the fast WR opposite Larry Fitzgerald.  He is off to a good start, and I think he can exploit bad defenses.
45. T.Y. Hilton Ind - Hilton has made some big plays in the pre-season and in week 3.  He has upside, but he is a rookie.

 

Tight Ends

1. Jimmy Graham NO - He is the focal point of the Saint's passing attack.
2. Rob Gronkowski NE - The Patriots look like they are getting Gronk back into the game plan.
3. Tony Gonzalez Atl - Gonzalez has been a big surprise.  Matt Ryan is looking to him in the red zone.
4. Vernon Davis SF - Davis can win you weeks, or be non existent from time to time.  The upside is worth the start every week.
5. Jason Witten Dal - Witten cut back on the drops last week, and had a huge game.  Witten should be reliable for 60-90 yards.
6. Antonio Gates SD - Gates looked better last week, until he was double teamed in the second half. I still say he rounds into form.
7. Owen Daniels Hou - Owen Daniels is now healthy and back to being a reliable receiving option for Matt Schaub. He will always get you yardage.
8. Aaron Hernandez NE - Hernandez might be back this week.  He is a WR in a TE body, and is the second best deep threat behind Lloyd. 
9. Martellus Bennett NYG - Bennett will end the year with more drops than a Skrillex concert.  The Giants don't care.  They will keep throwing him the ball, and Bennett is a great red zone option.
10. Dennis Pitta Bal - Pitta hurt a lot of people last week, but he has a ton of targets on the season.
11. Brandon Pettigrew Det - Pettigrew also struggles with drops.  He is heavily targeted and runs good routes for a TE.
12. Jermichael Finley GB - Finley has yet to turn into the TE we thought we would be.  He has the talent, but hasn't gotten the production consistently yet.
13. Heath Miller Pit - Ben Roethlisberger has said that he wants to get Miller to the pro bowl this year.  If he keeps catching TDs at this clip, he can.  Miller has been inconsistent in the past, maybe that changes this year.
14. Fred Davis Wsh - Davis has top 5 talent, but he doesn't appear to be a big part of the offense.
15. Greg Olsen Car - Olsen is the second best receiving option on the Panthers.  That isn't saying a whole lot.  The Panthers aren't finding the same success throwing this year, compared to 2011.
16. Scott Chandler Buf - TD dependant TE. But he gets a lot.
17. Jared Cook Ten - Cook is a big time talent at TE.  IF he was on a better offense he would be a monster.
18. Kyle Rudolph Min - Rudolph has the trust of Ponder and is the team's best red zone threat.
19. Brent Celek Phi - Celek is more involved in the passing game than in previous years, with Michael Vick under center.
20. Jermaine Gresham Cin - Gresham has talent, but that talent has never materialized into fantasy relevance.